National Tax Revenue Expected to Reach 478.6 Trillion Won This Year, Up 104 Trillion from Last Year

The government convened a revamped Tax Revenue Estimation Committee to review national tax revenue performance and discuss projected national tax revenue for this year.

This year's national tax revenue is projected at 478.6 trillion won, up 104.7 trillion won from last year's actual results (373.9 trillion won), representing an increase of 63.2 trillion won compared to the supplementary budget (415.4 trillion won).

The increase in national tax revenue for 2026 is attributed to the semiconductor boom, special dividends from semiconductor companies, stock market revitalization, and recovery in private consumption—factors that were difficult to predict when formulating the main and supplementary budgets.

According to surveys, the consensus on 2026 operating profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the two semiconductor companies leading semiconductor globalization, increased from 81 trillion won at the time of main budget formulation in July last year to 339 trillion won during supplementary budget formation in February this year, and further to 638 trillion won in September this year.

To enhance the reliability of tax revenue estimates, the government has strengthened cooperation with related agencies and experts, while improving expertise and reinforcing post-management systems.

Starting this year, the Tax Revenue Estimation Committee has been elevated to a government deliberative body to strengthen inter-agency collaboration, while operating a private advisory panel to discuss industry-specific forecasts necessary for tax revenue estimation, thereby enhancing expertise.

Additionally, the government introduced an AI prediction model for corporate tax estimation and reinforced estimation specialist workforce to improve estimation models by tax category. Furthermore, following amendments to the National Finance Act, the government has regularized September national tax revenue re-estimation to respond to unpredictable changes in circumstances, strengthening monitoring of tax revenue performance.

The government stated it will continue to pursue various measures to enhance tax revenue estimation reliability, including broadening communication in the estimation process and advancing estimation models.