U.S. Midterm Elections Prediction Markets Also Show 'Voter Judgment'…Democrats Favored to Retake Both Chambers

On November 3 local time, as the U.S. midterm election voting takes place, major U.S. prediction markets are showing strengthening projections that Democrats will control both the Senate and House.

Analysts assess that voter sentiment regarding the ruling party's monopoly on governance and economic anxiety have been fully reflected in prediction market indicators such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

By November 4 morning Korea time, voting across most of the United States will have closed, and beginning in the afternoon, exit poll outlines for major states and formal ballot counting results are expected to be released.

According to current local data, the probability of Democrats regaining House majority stands at 93-95%, with the atmosphere suggesting they have essentially locked in victory. This reflects voters' strong determination to pass judgment on the ruling party's monopoly in Congress.

The Senate victory probability, which had been a toss-up, has also surged to 71-76%, breaking through the mid-70% range and even shaking traditionally Republican strongholds. Accordingly, expectations are growing that Democrats will secure approximately 237 House seats and around 53 Senate seats, forming a powerful opposition majority in Congress and establishing a major turning point in future governance direction.

'Voter Judgment' Shifts Public Sentiment…Swing State Voters Turning Away from Democrats

In joint surveys by The New York Times and Siena College and other major polling organizations, Democrats maintain stable leads, surpassing Republicans by 8-9 percentage points.

Voter sentiment in seven key swing states has shifted toward Democrats, and Democratic candidates are also gaining ground in traditionally conservative strongholds such as Texas and Iowa. Analysis suggests that policy priorities ignoring ordinary citizens' livelihoods amid declining approval ratings for the ruling party and warnings of fiscal deficits have become the election's greatest liability.

Should Democrats control both the Senate and House, the Trump administration's unilateral governance is expected to face strong brakes.